There are countless 'handicapping services' in the business of providing people with parlays. They'll tout win rates much like probably the most impressive straight wager cappers. Of course, so as to they make reference to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On several sites you may have the privilege of dealing with some sort of royalty in the field of parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The fact is that exotic wagers keep sports books in business. Next time you are in Vegas have a look at the discarded tickets you see spread everywhere. It's safe to assume that you will find nearly all these losers are made up of such bets placed on both sports and racing. Of all sucker bets open to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of an enormous payout while disregarding the point that there is no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
The home edge on a standard straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Compared with many table games this is actually a fairly high percentage. Lots of table games and slots provide a better value for the common bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing some dice at the back wall.
Chance plays a role in everything the house provides. There are also steps that can be taken to decrease the edge in only about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as for example skill and preparation more useful compared to the sports book. The edge on a straight wager could be reversed in the bettors favor through the use of statistics and expertise in an activity. However, a double digit house edge can't ever be overcome in the end.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay you can possibly bet has a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages tend to be more consistent with keno, plus they are equally impossible to overcome over time. There is no mystery surrounding the planet of parlays. Bettors are drawn to risking a small amount of money for large payouts. The games which are most often played in the casino are slots that offer thousands or even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of these bettors is 'Go big, or go back home.' The casino is actually pleased to oblige as an incredible number of bettors go home with nothing within their pockets every year.
It is fair to assume that the biggest number of losing bets that a book accepts are exotic wagers of equal to or double the house minimum. Simply because most bettors don't have a meaningful bankroll set aside for sports betting. Given that they don't believe they are able to make any real money by placing $25-50 on several games weekly they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. By doing this they essentially ensure a substantial loss by the finish of the season. Meanwhile, should they only placed straight wagers at that same level they would limit their potential losses to a few units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they are keeping the size of their bets low they're not taking on a significant risk. This analysis is flawed because it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it really is my experience that a lot of bettors usually do not place just one single parlay weekly. In football this means a minimum of 34 parlays are placed during the regular season. In baseball that number can easily exceed 100. With a minimal unit bet that is still a dangerous number of wagers to put with such a high house edge. For instance, should you be placing only 5 team parlays your expectation ought to be to lose about $35 for each and every $100 you wager. Because the amount of bets you place increases it is inevitable that you will hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will usually result in upping your losses or erasing any profits you were able to make on straight wagers. In Kubet77 , I had a client who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He were able to do this by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. That is an expensive lesson to understand especially when you take into account I issued a similar warning to him.
If you are going to follow his lead and continue using parlays I have a few pointers that will help you over time. First of all, the best value of all parlays is actually the three team parlay. The difference between your house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, however the payout is more than twice as much. If you take a look at the graph you need to understand why I'd never bet a parlay of 4 teams or even more. However, if you're going to make such an investment here are two useful tips:
If you are going to bet a four or five 5 team parlay, always ensure it is 6 and even 10. The difference between your house edge to add one or two 2 more teams is at 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The home edge on a 10 teamer is virtually exactly like a 4 team parlay, however the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to 1 1.
If you are going to throw your money away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. The House edge is approximately 10 points less than all three of those bets and it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while working to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed should be kept in check to become successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. It is possible to chase high returns while assuming plenty of unnecessary risk. Or it is possible to minimize your contact with a few units while maintaining an acceptable expectation to improve your bankroll by 50%...The choice is yours.