"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that if your book offers "if/reverses," you can play those instead of parlays. Some of you may not learn how to bet an "if/reverse." A full explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, together with the situations where each is best..
An "if" bet is exactly what it appears like. You bet Team A and when it wins you then place an equal amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at different times is a kind of "if" bet where you bet on the initial team, and if it wins you bet double on the next team. With a genuine "if" bet, rather than betting double on the second team, you bet the same amount on the second team.
Website link is possible to avoid two calls to the bookmaker and lock in the current line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you wish to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can be made on two games kicking off at the same time. The bookmaker will wait before first game has ended. If the first game wins, he will put an equal amount on the next game though it has already been played.
Although an "if" bet is really two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that so long as want the second bet. Once you make an "if" bet, the second bet cannot be cancelled, even if the second game has not gone off yet. If the initial game wins, you will have action on the next game. For that reason, there's less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. When the two games you bet overlap with time, however, the only way to bet one only if another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Needless to say, when two games overlap in time, cancellation of the second game bet is not an issue. It ought to be noted, that when both games start at different times, most books won't allow you to fill in the second game later. You need to designate both teams when you make the bet.
You can make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I want to make an 'if' bet," and then, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction will be the same as betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and then, only if Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the first team in the "if" bet loses, there is absolutely no bet on the next team. No matter whether the second team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet would be $110 once you lose on the first team. If the initial team wins, however, you would have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the second team. If so, if the next team loses, your total loss will be just the $10 of vig on the split of the two teams. If both games win, you'll win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a complete win of $200. Thus, the maximum loss on an "if" will be $110, and the maximum win would be $200. This is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the entire $110, rather than just $10 of vig, each and every time the teams split with the first team in the bet losing.
As you can plainly see, it matters a good deal which game you put first in an "if" bet. If you put the loser first in a split, then you lose your full bet. In the event that you split however the loser is the second team in the bet, you then only lose the vig.
Bettors soon discovered that the way to steer clear of the uncertainty caused by the order of wins and loses would be to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Rather than betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you'll bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and then make a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The second bet would put Team B first and Team Another. This type of double bet, reversing the order of exactly the same two teams, is called an "if/reverse" or sometimes only a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't have to state both bets. You only tell the clerk you want to bet a "reverse," the two teams, and the amount.
If both teams win, the result would be the same as if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the first "if bet, and then $50 on Team B, for a complete win of $100. In the second "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and $50 on Team A, for a total win of $100. Both "if" bets together create a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the result would also be the same as in the event that you played an individual "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would set you back $55 in the initial "if" combination, and nothing would look at Team B. In the second combination, Team B's loss would cost you $55 and nothing would look at to Team A. You would lose $55 on each one of the bets for a total maximum lack of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs when the teams split. Rather than losing $110 once the first team loses and the next wins, and $10 when the first team wins however the second loses, in the reverse you will lose $60 on a split whichever team wins and which loses. It works out this way. If Team A loses you will lose $55 on the initial combination, and also have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the next combination, you'll win $50 on Team B, and also have action on Team A for a $55 loss, producing a net loss on the second mix of $5 vig. The increased loss of $55 on the initial "if" bet and $5 on the next "if" bet gives you a combined loss of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you will lose the $5 vig on the first combination and the $55 on the next combination for the same $60 on the split..
We have accomplished this smaller lack of $60 rather than $110 once the first team loses without reduction in the win when both teams win. In both single $110 "if" bet and both reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers would never put themselves at that type of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the extra $50 loss ($60 instead of $10) whenever Team B is the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us hardly any money, but it has the benefit of making the chance more predictable, and preventing the worry concerning which team to place first in the "if" bet.
(What follows is an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations provide you with a headache, skip them and write down the rules. I'll summarize the rules in an an easy task to copy list in my next article.)
As with parlays, the general rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, if you can win more than 52.5% or even more of your games. If you fail to consistently achieve a winning percentage, however, making "if" bets once you bet two teams can save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds an element of luck to your betting equation it doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, they should both be bet. Betting using one shouldn't be made dependent on whether or not you win another. However, for the bettor who includes a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the next team whenever the first team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the truth that he is not betting the next game when both lose. Compared to the straight bettor, the "if" bettor comes with an additional cost of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, anything that keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets reduce the amount of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is exactly opposite. Whatever keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and for that reason "if" bets will definitely cost the winning handicapper money. When the winning bettor plays fewer games, he has fewer winners. Remember that the next time someone lets you know that the way to win is to bet fewer games. A smart winner never really wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" workout a similar as "if" bets, they both place the winner at an equal disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - Whenever a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
Much like all rules, you can find exceptions. "If" bets and parlays should be made by a winner with a positive expectation in mere two circumstances::
When there is no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I can think of that you have no other choice is if you are the best man at your friend's wedding, you are waiting to walk down the aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of one's tux so you left it in the car, you only bet offshore in a deposit account with no credit line, the book includes a $50 minimum phone bet, you prefer two games which overlap with time, you pull out your trusty cell five minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you must walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your arm, you try to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you merely have $75 in your account.
Because the old philosopher used to say, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If that's the case, hold your head up high, put a smile on your own face, search for the silver lining, and create a $50 "if" bet on your two teams. Needless to say you could bet a parlay, but as you will notice below, the "if/reverse" is a great substitute for the parlay should you be winner.
For the winner, the very best method is straight betting. In the case of co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, you will find a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor gets the advantage of increased parlay odds of 13-5 on combined bets which have greater than the normal expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets should always be contained within the same game, they must be produced as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage comes from the fact that we make the next bet only IF one of the propositions wins.
It would do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favourite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We'd simply lose the vig no matter how often the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favourite and over and the underdog and under, we can net a $160 win when one of our combinations will come in. When to choose the parlay or the "reverse" when making co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Based on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the intended purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when among our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay minus the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win would be $180 every time among our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse without the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
Whenever a split occurs and the under comes in with the favorite, or over comes in with the underdog, the parlay will eventually lose $110 while the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" has a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay includes a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay would be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we are not in a 50-50 situation. If the favorite covers the high spread, it is more likely that the game will go over the comparatively low total, and if the favorite fails to cover the high spread, it really is more likely that the game will under the total. As we have already seen, when you have a positive expectation the "if/reverse" is a superior bet to the parlay. The specific possibility of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends on how close the lines on the side and total are one to the other, but the fact that they are co-dependent gives us a positive expectation.
The point at which the "if/reverse" becomes an improved bet than the parlay when coming up with our two co-dependent is a 72% win-rate. This is simply not as outrageous a win-rate as it sounds. When coming up with two combinations, you have two chances to win. You only have to win one out of the two. Each of the combinations comes with an independent positive expectation. If we assume the opportunity of either the favourite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or another must win) then all we need is a 72% probability that when, for example, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the overall game will go over the full total 53 � at the very least 72% of the time as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we have been only � point from a win. A BC cover can lead to an over 72% of the time is not an unreasonable assumption beneath the circumstances.
As compared with a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win an extra $4 seventy-two times, for a total increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" will cause us to lose a supplementary $10 the 28 times that the results split for a complete increased loss of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."