"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that if your book offers "if/reverses," it is possible to play those instead of parlays. Some of you might not know how to bet an "if/reverse." A full explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, together with the situations where each is best..
An "if" bet is exactly what it sounds like. You bet Team A and when it wins you then place an equal amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at different times is a kind of "if" bet where you bet on the first team, and if it wins without a doubt double on the second team. With a genuine "if" bet, rather than betting double on the next team, you bet the same amount on the next team.
You can avoid two calls to the bookmaker and secure the existing line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you want to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can even be made on two games kicking off at the same time. The bookmaker will wait until the first game is over. If the initial game wins, he will put an equal amount on the second game even though it was already played.
Although an "if" bet is actually two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that you no longer want the second bet. As soon as you make an "if" bet, the next bet can't be cancelled, even if the next game have not gone off yet. If the initial game wins, you should have action on the next game. For that reason, there's less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. Once the two games without a doubt overlap with time, however, the only way to bet one only if another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Of course, when two games overlap in time, cancellation of the next game bet is not an issue. It should be noted, that when the two games start at differing times, most books will not allow you to complete the second game later. You must designate both teams once you make the bet.
You possibly can make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I would like to make an 'if' bet," and, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction will be the same as betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and, only when Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the first team in the "if" bet loses, there is absolutely no bet on the second team. No matter whether the next team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet would be $110 once you lose on the first team. If the first team wins, however, you'll have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the next team. If so, if the next team loses, your total loss would be just the $10 of vig on the split of both teams. If both games win, you'll win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a total win of $200. Thus, the utmost loss on an "if" would be $110, and the utmost win will be $200. This is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the entire $110, instead of just $10 of vig, each and every time the teams split with the first team in the bet losing.
As you can plainly see, it matters a good deal which game you put first in an "if" bet. In the event that you put the loser first in a split, then you lose your full bet. If you split but the loser may be the second team in the bet, you then only lose the vig.
Bettors soon discovered that the way to steer clear of the uncertainty caused by the order of wins and loses would be to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Instead of betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you'll bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and then make a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The next bet would put Team B first and Team A second. This type of double bet, reversing the order of the same two teams, is named an "if/reverse" or sometimes just a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't need to state both bets. You only tell the clerk you want to bet a "reverse," the two teams, and the amount.
If both teams win, the effect would be the same as if you played a single "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the initial "if bet, and then $50 on Team B, for a complete win of $100. In the next "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and $50 on Team A, for a complete win of $100. Both "if" bets together create a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the result would also be the same as if you played a single "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would set you back $55 in the initial "if" combination, and nothing would go onto Team B. In the next combination, Team B's loss would set you back $55 and nothing would go onto to Team A. You would lose $55 on each one of the bets for a total maximum loss of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs when the teams split. Rather than losing $110 when the first team loses and the next wins, and $10 once the first team wins but the second loses, in the reverse you'll lose $60 on a split whichever team wins and which loses. It computes this way. If Team A loses you will lose $55 on the first combination, and have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the next combination, you will win $50 on Team B, and have action on Team A for a $55 loss, resulting in a net loss on the second mix of $5 vig. The loss of $55 on the initial "if" bet and $5 on the second "if" bet gives you a combined loss of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you will lose the $5 vig on the initial combination and the $55 on the next combination for exactly the same $60 on the split..
We've accomplished this smaller lack of $60 instead of $110 when the first team loses with no decrease in the win when both teams win. In both the single $110 "if" bet and the two reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers would never put themselves at that sort of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the extra $50 loss ($60 instead of $10) whenever Team B may be the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us hardly any money, but it does have the advantage of making the chance more predictable, and preventing the worry concerning which team to put first in the "if" bet.
(What follows is an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations offer you a headache, skip them and write down the rules. I'll summarize the rules in an an easy task to copy list in my next article.)
As with parlays, the general rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, when you can win more than 52.5% or more of your games. If you fail to consistently achieve a winning percentage, however, making "if" bets once you bet two teams will save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds some luck to your betting equation that doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, they should both be bet. Betting using one should not be made dependent on whether you win another. However, for the bettor who includes a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the second team whenever the first team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the truth that he could be not betting the next game when both lose. When compared to straight bettor, the "if" bettor comes with an additional cost of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, anything that keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets decrease the number of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is strictly opposite. Anything that keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and for that reason "if" bets will definitely cost the winning handicapper money. Once the winning bettor plays fewer games, he's got fewer winners. Remember that the next time someone tells you that the way to win would be to bet fewer games. A smart winner never really wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" workout a similar as "if" bets, they both place the winner at an equal disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - Whenever a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
As with all rules, there are exceptions. "If" bets and parlays ought to be made by successful with a positive expectation in mere two circumstances::
When there is no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I could think of you have no other choice is if you're the best man at your friend's wedding, you are waiting to walk down the aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of one's tux so you left it in the car, you only bet offshore in a deposit account with no line of credit, the book has a $50 minimum phone bet, you prefer two games which overlap with time, you grab your trusty cell five minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you must walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your arm, you try to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you merely have $75 in your account.
As the old philosopher used to state, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If that's the case, hold your mind up high, put a smile on your own face, look for the silver lining, and make a $50 "if" bet on your own two teams. Of course you can bet a parlay, but as you will notice below, the "if/reverse" is a wonderful substitute for the parlay should you be winner.
For the winner, the very best method is straight betting. Regarding co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, there is a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor is getting the advantage of increased parlay odds of 13-5 on combined bets that have greater than the normal expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets must always be contained within exactly the same game, they must be produced as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage originates from the truth that we make the second bet only IF one of the propositions wins.
bsports world could do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favorite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We would simply lose the vig regardless of how usually the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favorite and over and the underdog and under, we are able to net a $160 win when one of our combinations comes in. When to choose the parlay or the "reverse" when coming up with co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Predicated on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the intended purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when one of our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay minus the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win would be $180 every time one of our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse minus the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
When a split occurs and the under will come in with the favorite, or over will come in with the underdog, the parlay will eventually lose $110 as the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" has a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay includes a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay would be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we are not in a 50-50 situation. If the favorite covers the high spread, it is more likely that the game will go over the comparatively low total, and if the favorite does not cover the high spread, it really is more likely that the overall game will beneath the total. As we have already seen, once you have a confident expectation the "if/reverse" is a superior bet to the parlay. The specific possibility of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends on how close the lines on the side and total are to one another, but the proven fact that they are co-dependent gives us a confident expectation.
The point at which the "if/reverse" becomes an improved bet than the parlay when coming up with our two co-dependent is a 72% win-rate. This is not as outrageous a win-rate as it sounds. When making two combinations, you have two chances to win. You merely have to win one out of the two. Each one of the combinations comes with an independent positive expectation. If we assume the chance of either the favorite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or the other must win) then all we are in need of is a 72% probability that when, for instance, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the overall game will go over the total 53 � at least 72% of the time as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we are only � point from a win. That a BC cover will result in an over 72% of that time period is not an unreasonable assumption beneath the circumstances.
In comparison with a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win a supplementary $4 seventy-two times, for a complete increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" will cause us to lose a supplementary $10 the 28 times that the outcomes split for a total increased loss of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."