"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that if your book offers "if/reverses," you can play those rather than parlays. Some of you may not learn how to bet an "if/reverse." A full explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, together with the situations in which each is best..
An "if" bet is exactly what it sounds like. Without a doubt Team A and IF it wins then you place an equal amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at differing times is a kind of "if" bet where you bet on the first team, and if it wins you bet double on the second team. With a true "if" bet, rather than betting double on the next team, you bet an equal amount on the next team.
You can avoid two calls to the bookmaker and lock in the existing line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you wish to make an "if" bet. "If" bets may also be made on two games kicking off at the same time. The bookmaker will wait until the first game is over. If the initial game wins, he will put the same amount on the next game though it was already played.
Although an "if" bet is really two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that so long as want the next bet. Once you make an "if" bet, the next bet can't be cancelled, even if the next game has not gone off yet. If the initial game wins, you will have action on the next game. For that reason, there is less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. When the two games without a doubt overlap in time, however, the only way to bet one only when another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Of course, when two games overlap in time, cancellation of the second game bet isn't an issue. It ought to be noted, that when both games start at different times, most books will not allow you to complete the second game later. You need to designate both teams when you make the bet.
You possibly can make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I wish to make an 'if' bet," and, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction will be the same as betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and, only if Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the first team in the "if" bet loses, there is no bet on the second team. Whether or not the next team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet will be $110 when you lose on the first team. If the initial team wins, however, you'll have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the next team. If so, if the next team loses, your total loss would be just the $10 of vig on the split of the two teams. If both games win, you'll win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a complete win of $200. Thus, the maximum loss on an "if" would be $110, and the utmost win will be $200. This is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the full $110, rather than just $10 of vig, each time the teams split with the first team in the bet losing.
As you can see, it matters a great deal which game you put first in an "if" bet. In the event that you put the loser first in a split, you then lose your full bet. In the event that you split however the loser is the second team in the bet, then you only lose the vig.
Bettors soon discovered that the way to avoid the uncertainty caused by the order of wins and loses would be to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Rather than betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you would bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and then make a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The second bet would put Team B first and Team Another. This sort of double bet, reversing the order of exactly the same two teams, is named an "if/reverse" or sometimes only a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't have to state both bets. You merely tell the clerk you intend to bet a "reverse," both teams, and the total amount.
If both teams win, the result would be the same as if you played a single "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the first "if bet, and then $50 on Team B, for a total win of $100. In the next "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and $50 on Team A, for a complete win of $100. The two "if" bets together result in a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the result would also function as same as in the event that you played a single "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would set you back $55 in the first "if" combination, and nothing would look at Team B. In the second combination, Team B's loss would set you back $55 and nothing would look at to Team A. You would lose $55 on each one of the bets for a total maximum lack of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs once the teams split. Instead of losing $110 once the first team loses and the second wins, and $10 when the first team wins however the second loses, in the reverse you'll lose $60 on a split whichever team wins and which loses. It works out this way. If Team A loses you'll lose $55 on the initial combination, and also have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the next combination, you will win $50 on Team B, and have action on Team A for a $55 loss, producing a net loss on the second combination of $5 vig. casino red88 increased loss of $55 on the first "if" bet and $5 on the next "if" bet offers you a combined lack of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you'll lose the $5 vig on the initial combination and the $55 on the second combination for exactly the same $60 on the split..
We have accomplished this smaller loss of $60 instead of $110 when the first team loses with no reduction in the win when both teams win. In both the single $110 "if" bet and both reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers would never put themselves at that sort of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the extra $50 loss ($60 instead of $10) whenever Team B may be the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us hardly any money, but it has the benefit of making the chance more predictable, and avoiding the worry as to which team to put first in the "if" bet.
(What follows can be an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations provide you with a headache, skip them and write down the rules. I'll summarize the rules in an easy to copy list in my next article.)
As with parlays, the general rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, if you can win a lot more than 52.5% or more of your games. If you fail to consistently achieve an absolute percentage, however, making "if" bets whenever you bet two teams can save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds some luck to your betting equation it doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, then they should both be bet. Betting using one should not be made dependent on whether you win another. Alternatively, for the bettor who has a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the next team whenever the first team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the fact that he could be not betting the next game when both lose. When compared to straight bettor, the "if" bettor has an additional cost of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, whatever keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets reduce the number of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is strictly opposite. Anything that keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and therefore "if" bets will definitely cost the winning handicapper money. Once the winning bettor plays fewer games, he has fewer winners. Understand that next time someone tells you that the way to win would be to bet fewer games. A good winner never really wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" workout a similar as "if" bets, they both place the winner at the same disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - Whenever a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
As with all rules, you can find exceptions. "If" bets and parlays should be made by a winner with a confident expectation in mere two circumstances::
When there is no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I could think of that you have no other choice is if you're the very best man at your friend's wedding, you're waiting to walk down the aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of one's tux so you left it in the automobile, you only bet offshore in a deposit account with no line of credit, the book has a $50 minimum phone bet, you like two games which overlap with time, you pull out your trusty cell 5 minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you must walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your own arm, you try to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you merely have $75 in your account.
Because the old philosopher used to state, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If that's the case, hold your mind up high, put a smile on your face, search for the silver lining, and create a $50 "if" bet on your two teams. Of course you could bet a parlay, but as you will see below, the "if/reverse" is an effective substitute for the parlay in case you are winner.
For the winner, the very best method is straight betting. In the case of co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, there exists a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor gets the benefit of increased parlay probability of 13-5 on combined bets that have greater than the normal expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets should always be contained within the same game, they must be produced as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage comes from the point that we make the next bet only IF among the propositions wins.
It would do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favourite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We'd simply lose the vig no matter how usually the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favorite and over and the underdog and under, we are able to net a $160 win when one of our combinations comes in. When to choose the parlay or the "reverse" when coming up with co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Based on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when among our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay without the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win will be $180 every time among our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse without the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
Whenever a split occurs and the under will come in with the favorite, or over comes in with the underdog, the parlay will lose $110 while the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" includes a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay has a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay will be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we are not in a 50-50 situation. If the favorite covers the high spread, it is much more likely that the game will review the comparatively low total, and when the favorite fails to cover the high spread, it is more likely that the game will under the total. As we have already seen, when you have a positive expectation the "if/reverse" is a superior bet to the parlay. The actual possibility of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends upon how close the lines privately and total are to one another, but the fact that they're co-dependent gives us a confident expectation.
The point at which the "if/reverse" becomes an improved bet compared to the parlay when coming up with our two co-dependent is a 72% win-rate. This is not as outrageous a win-rate as it sounds. When coming up with two combinations, you have two chances to win. You merely need to win one out of your two. Each of the combinations has an independent positive expectation. If we assume the opportunity of either the favorite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or another must win) then all we are in need of is a 72% probability that when, for example, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the game will go over the total 53 � at least 72% of the time as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we have been only � point from a win. A BC cover can lead to an over 72% of that time period is not an unreasonable assumption beneath the circumstances.
When compared with a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win an extra $4 seventy-two times, for a total increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" may cause us to lose an extra $10 the 28 times that the results split for a total increased lack of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."